Forex Weekly Outlook 9-13 July

The first week of Q3 opened with a resumption of the US Dollar’s strength, but it found itself retreating later on. US inflation and consumer confidence stand out in the upcoming week.

US data kept up its good performance which supported the US Dollar. More importantly, the greenback enjoyed safe-haven flows related to the growing concerns about trade wars. The political crisis in Germany dominated the headlines early in the week but was quickly resolved, allowing some relief for the euro. In the UK, the government continued struggling to decide on its approach while negotiations with the EU remained stuck. The market mood improved later on as the US tariffs on China came into effect without any fanfare. In addition, German Chancellor Merkel opened the door to reducing EU tariffs on cars as a move meant to ease tensions with the US. The euro liked it and it had a positive effect beyond the common currency. The FOMC Meeting Minutes showed optimism about the US economy but also warned on trade, in an overall dovish document. The US Non-Farm Payrolls came out better than expected on the headline with 213K but missed on wages that remained stagnant at 2.7% YoY.

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